Economic Outlook In Crisis Monitor Showing Bankruptcy And Depres

When will the stock market crash??

I don’t know! Do you believe that there are experts, or advisory firms, that can accurately predict when this might happen?  Really? And are you willing to pay for these forecasts?

The key to forecasting is not that so-called experts believe that a market or sector may be over or undervalued and due for a sell-off.  In many respects, that might even be somewhat easy to identify.  What is not so easy is timing a sell-off and predicting its magnitude.  What if it happens five or ten years later than projected?  Or if it is a brief sell-off, and starts to correct?  Then what?

Clients ask me what will happen to the markets.  My answer is that in the short run, which could be anywhere from tomorrow to 5 years, I have no idea.  In the long run, I have a guess of what will happen, but I could be wrong.  I try to make it clear that they don’t pay me to predict the markets.

Benjamin Graham is a legendary Wall Street Figure – considered to be the father of value investing. He was a major influence on Warren Buffett.  He said this about market forecasting: “If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed at forecasting what is going to happen in the stock market.”

So what type of advice should you buy?  That is your decision, but I don’t believe you should pay for market forecasts.   After almost 20 years in the industry, it has become clear to me that paying for market forecasting is a waste of money.   But it is your money – there are plenty of firms and advisors with a forecast to sell.

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